The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the Blue Riband event of the National Hunt Season in the UK. There are currently 26 runners still entered for this event and by looking at the event’s history it is possible to narrow down the choice of this year’s winner.
Positive Trends
This is a race that every owner, trainer and jockey wants to win, so it is not surprising that the cream comes to the top each year. In fact the last 12 winners have all previously won at Grade One level before winning the Gold Cup.
In recent years the Grade One King George VI chase at Kempton on Boxing Day has been far and away the best trial. Haydock’s Betfair Chase is another Grade One race that has had runners perform very well in the Gold Cup. This year both races were won by Kauto Star with the current Gold Cup champion, Long Run, finishing second both times.
Only one of the last 13 winners had not won a race that season and previous form at the Cheltenham festival is also recommended, Although not unknown to have big price winners, the latest trend is that the winner can be found in the top three of the betting. This has happened in the last eleven years.
Ten of the last 11 eleven winners have been won by horses with an Official Rating of 166+, however this might be a little misleading as on six of these occasions they were won by Best Mate (3), Kauto Star (2) and Denman. A reasonable figure would be for a horse to have reached at least an Official Rating of 158+.
Negative Trends
Age does seem to be a factor in this race as the last time a horse has won the race and was over the age of ten was back in 1969 when What A Myth won at the age of 12. Since 1963, only the great Dawn Run has won the race having less than 6 starts over fences and not since 1974 when Captain Christy won, has a horse won as a first season novice.
Summary
So what we are looking for is a horse that is 10 years old or younger, has previously won at Grade One level, has won a race this current season, has previous Cheltenham festival form, had at least 6 starts as a chaser and not in his novice season.
Surprisingly this discounts the horse that has the best form this season in Kauto Star, who at the age of 12 will need to defy over 40 years of history to win this. If he runs, Grand Crus will have to defy even more as he is a novice who currently has had only three starts over fences.
Only three horses satisfy the main requirements for this race and they are Captain Chris 33/1 (aged 8 with an Official Rating of 164), Long Run 9/4 favourite (aged 7 with an Official Rating of 182) and Medermit 50/1 (aged 8 with an Official Rating of 163).
Source
www.racingpost.com
www.britishhorseracing.com
Steve Boxall - I have written articles on Travel, Sport and History and currently I am Cricket's Feature Writer for Suite101.
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